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房价上涨对居民消费具有财富效应与挤出效应双重影响。利用中国2000—2015年30个省(自治区、直辖市)的数据进行实证分析,结果显示,房价上涨抑制了消费需求增长,但不同类型的房产价格上涨对消费需求的挤出效应是不同的。对消费的挤出效应从大到小依次为住宅商品房、商业商品房、办公商品房和工业商品房的价格上涨。进一步以房价收入比度量泡沫化程度并作为门限变量,研究其对挤出效应的影响,发现不论房价收入比高低,房价上涨均抑制了消费增长,但房价上涨对消费的挤出效应在房价收入比6.607两侧具有显著的门限效应,跨越门限值后挤出效应显著增强。
The rising of house price has dual influence on the consumption effect and the crowding-out effect. Using the data of 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) from 2000 to 2015 in China, the empirical analysis shows that the rising of house prices suppresses the growth of consumer demand, but the extrusion effects of different types of real estate prices on consumer demand are different. The crowding-out effect on consumption, in descending order, is the price increase of residential commercial houses, commercial commercial houses, office commercial houses and industrial commercial houses. Furthermore, we measure the degree of foam as the threshold variable with the price-to-income ratio, and study its effect on the extrusion effect. It is found that regardless of the price-income ratio, the rising of house prices restrains the growth of consumption, but the crowding- Than 6.607 both sides have a significant threshold effect, after crossing the threshold extrusion effect was significantly enhanced.