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该文深入分析了国内外隧道施工过程中关于岩溶涌突水灾害风险评价的研究现状,提出了岩溶涌突水灾害超前预测预报尚处于探索性研究阶段,岩溶隧道涌突水灾害的预测评价体系经历了由定性到半定量,再到定量化评价的发展过程。无论是早期基于隧道超前预测预报的岩溶涌突水灾害宏观地质评判,还是后期基于隧道及地下工程领域的风险管理、风险评估理论、方法等发展起来的风险评估方法体系,在一定时期内能够解决生产实践中发现的问题,但也存在一定的局限性。
This paper deeply analyzes the current research status of risk assessment of karst water inrush in tunnel construction at home and abroad and puts forward that the prediction and forecast system of karst water inrush is still in the exploratory stage and the prediction and evaluation system of karst tunnel water inrush Has gone through from qualitative to semi-quantitative, then quantitative evaluation of the development process. Whether it is the macro-geological evaluation of karst inrush water disasters based on the early prediction and prediction of tunnels or the risk assessment method system developed in the late stage based on risk management, risk assessment theory and methods in tunnel and underground engineering, it can be solved within a certain period of time Problems found in production practice, but also have some limitations.