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太湖流域是我国经济最发达的地区之一，当遭受洪涝灾害后，经济损失极为严重。本文采用 地理信息系统方法，模拟了 １９９１年洪涝灾害的淹没范围和灾害损失，并预测了２０１０年在发生 １９９１年 型洪涝淹没情况下的经济损失，为制定流域防洪减灾决策提供了依据。根据预测，当２０１０年在发生 １９９１年型特大洪涝淹没时，灾害经济损失将可高达７７４亿元，约为１９９１年的７倍，因此太湖的防洪任 务极为严峻。
The Taihu Lake Basin is one of the most economically developed areas in our country. After being hit by floods, the economic losses are extremely serious. In this paper, the method of geographic information system (GIS) was used to simulate the flood inundation area and disaster loss in 1991, and predicted the economic loss in 1991 when the 1991 type of flood inundation happened. This provided the basis for making the decision of flood control and disaster mitigation. According to the forecast, when the 1991 floods of major types were inundated in 2010, the economic loss of disasters will be as high as 77.4 billion yuan, about seven times that of 1991. Therefore, the flood control task in Taihu Lake is extremely serious.