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文章选用30个省份2005—2015年面板数据从供给和需求两个角度分析老龄化对消费结构和劳动力城乡结构变化的动态效应。供给角度通过建立动态面板数据模型实证分析得到结论,东部地区老龄化对消费有促进作用,中、西部有抑制作用。需求角度运用面板数据联立方程模型研究发现,东部地区老龄化对劳动力城乡结构变化有推动作用,中、西部有阻碍作用。最后比较分析东、中、西部地区老龄化对消费与劳动力城乡结构效应的影响程度,并给出政策建议。
This paper selects the panel data from 2005 to 2015 in 30 provinces to analyze the dynamic effects of aging on the changes of consumption structure and labor force in urban and rural areas from both supply and demand perspectives. Supply perspective through the establishment of dynamic panel data model empirical analysis concluded that the aging of the eastern region have a catalytic role in promoting consumption in central and western inhibitory effect. From the perspective of demand, the study of the simultaneous equations of panel data shows that the aging of the eastern part of the country contributes to the structural changes of the urban-rural labor force and hinders the development of the urban and rural areas in the central and western regions. Finally, a comparative analysis is made of the degree of influence of the aging of eastern, central and western regions on the urban and rural structural effects of consumption and labor force and policy recommendations.