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自2010年6月份以来,我国猪肉价格波动频繁。本文拟利用月度统计数据,从理论和实证两个方面深入分析此次猪肉价格波动的原因,分析结果表明:猪肉供给量的不足、生产成本中仔猪成本的上涨、上期猪肉价格的惯性拉动作用等因素是本轮猪肉价格持续上涨的主要原因;突发事件、国家的相关调控政策等因素也能在一定程度上影响猪肉价格;通货膨胀和玉米价格对猪肉价格的影响不显著。最后根据研究的结果提出了政策建议。
Since June 2010, China’s pork prices fluctuate frequently. This paper intends to make use of the monthly statistics to analyze the reasons for the fluctuation of pork price theoretically and empirically. The results show that the shortage of pork supply, the increase of piglet cost in production cost and the inertia pull of last period pork price Factors are the main reason for the continuous increase of pork price in the current round; factors such as emergencies and related regulatory policies of the country can also affect the pork price to a certain extent; the impact of inflation and corn prices on pork prices is insignificant. Finally, according to the results of the study put forward policy recommendations.