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本文首先对比分析了我国与世界主要国家一次能源消费状况,进而分析我国分行业一次化石能源消费状况,结合我国中短期的节能减排政策和规划目标,应用灰色神经网络-投入产出组合预测模型,预测了2011年我国分行业一次化石能源消费产生的二氧化碳排放量。依据预测结果和分析,提出分部门节能减排的政策建议。
This paper first comparative analysis of primary energy consumption in China and other major countries in the world, and then analyze China’s sub-sectors of a fossil energy consumption, combined with China’s short-term energy-saving emission reduction policies and planning objectives, the application of gray neural network - input-output combination forecasting model Predicted the carbon dioxide emissions from a fossil energy consumption by sector in 2011 in China. Based on the forecast results and analysis, this paper puts forward the policy suggestion of energy saving and emission reduction in different departments.