传统的地下水允许开采量计算大都是采用确定性模型进行的.而实际上,在其计算中存在着一些不确定性因素,它们直接影响着计算结果的精度,而“不确定性”与“风险”是紧密相联系的.为此,本文以山东省济宁市地下水资源评价为例,在详细介绍了风险分析的基本概念和风险分析方法的基础上,对地下水允许开采量的确定进行了风险分析,所采用的风险分析方法为蒙特卡罗方法,其中的随机数产生采用混合同余法.经风险分析所得结果较传统的水文地质学方法计算的结果,更符合实际情况.为在今后的地下水资源评价工作中,更加合理地、可靠地确定水源地的允许开采量提供了一种切实可行的方法,使得与地下水开采有关决策的失误减小到最低程度 However, in practice, there are some uncertainties in the calculation of allowable production of groundwater, which directly affect the accuracy of the calculation results. However, “uncertainty” and “risk ”Is closely related.To this end, this paper takes Jining City, Shandong Province as an example of groundwater resources evaluation, based on the detailed introduction of the basic concepts of risk analysis and risk analysis methods, the risk analysis of the determination of allowable exploitation of groundwater , The risk analysis method used is Monte Carlo method, in which the generation of random numbers is based on the mixed congruence method, and the result of risk analysis is more realistic than the result of traditional hydrogeological methods. In resource assessment, a more reasonable and reliable determination of the allowable extraction of water sources provides a practical way to minimize the errors associated with the exploitation of groundwater