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基于完全随机场模拟溶蚀岩体可能会高估其空间变异性和不能有效地利用溶蚀以外的地质信息和实践经验,提出用Bayes约束参数随机场模型描述坝基溶蚀区的随机模拟方法。引入Bayes公式,对溶蚀区域岩土参数的统计特性进行修正,反映出地质勘测的新增地质信息和试验参数信息,建立约束随机场,并在此基础上进行随机有限元分析,研究坝基溶蚀对大坝结构性态的作用效应。计算结果表明,相对于完全随机场模型,Bayes约束随机场模型更为客观地考虑了溶蚀岩体的空间变异性,有效地降低了溶蚀参数完全随机场下结构响应的模拟方差。在概率分析过程中,推荐蒙特卡洛响应面耦合方法(MC-RSM)作为适用于复杂工程的随机模拟方法,该方法能够代替直接MC法对同样力学机制的不断重复,减小计算时间成本。
Based on completely random field simulation of eroded rock mass, it may overestimate its spatial variability and can not effectively utilize geological information and practical experience other than erode. A stochastic simulation method using Bayesian constrained parametric random field model to describe the eroded area of dam foundation is proposed. The Bayes formula is introduced to modify the statistical properties of geotechnical parameters in the eroded area. The new geologic information and experimental parameter information of the geologic survey are reflected, and the constrained random field is established. Based on the analysis, stochastic finite element analysis Effect of dam structure. The calculated results show that compared with the completely random field model, the Bayes constrained random field model more objectively considers the spatial variability of the eroded rock mass and effectively reduces the simulated variance of the structural response under the completely random field of the eroded parameters. In the process of probability analysis, the Monte Carlo Response Surface Coupling Method (MC-RSM) is recommended as a stochastic simulation method for complex engineering. This method can replace the direct MC method to repeat the same mechanics and reduce the computational time cost.