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大量研究发现保险业发展可以影响经济增长,但对于保险业的结构特征和区域差异对经济增长是否有作用却鲜有涉及。本文运用中国31个省份(直辖市)在1999年～2008年间的面板数据,利用固定效应模型和系统广义矩方法进行了计量分析。我们发现提高保险市场上中小保险公司的市场份额,可以有效地促进经济增长,市场份额的平方项和经济增长负相关,即中小保险公司份额和经济增长之间存在“倒U型”关系;提高寿险深度可以促进经济增长,财险深度的提高则会抑制经济增长。本文还构建了相对保险深度指标对全国样本进行分类,发现不同区域保险业结构对经济增长的影响规律存在一定的差异。
A large number of studies have found that the development of the insurance industry can affect economic growth. However, little is said about whether the structural characteristics of the insurance industry and the regional differences have an effect on economic growth. In this paper, the panel data of 31 provinces (municipalities) in China from 1999 to 2008 are used for the quantitative analysis using the fixed effect model and the system generalized moment method. We find that increasing the market share of small and medium insurers in the insurance market can effectively promote economic growth. The square term of market share and economic growth are negatively correlated with each other, that is, there is an “inverted U” relationship between the share of small and medium insurers and economic growth ; To enhance the depth of life insurance can promote economic growth, increase the depth of property insurance will restrain economic growth. This paper also builds the relative insurance depth index to classify the national samples and finds that there are some differences in the rules of the insurance structure in different regions on economic growth.