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提出了一种基于状态空间时变参数模型的中长期负荷预测建模新方法,将状态变量纳入可观模型求解,反映了变量间均衡关系的变化规律。实证部分使用中国年度用电量与国内生产总值时间序列建立了模型,对2002—2005年度的用电量进行了测算,检验了方法的有效性。
A new method of medium and long-term load forecasting modeling based on time-varying parametric model of state space was proposed. The state variables were included in the model, which reflected the changing law of the equilibrium relationship among variables. The empirical part uses China’s annual electricity consumption and GDP time series to establish a model to measure the electricity consumption in 2002-2005 and test the effectiveness of the method.