对存货行为的透彻理解 ,是对经济周期的透彻理解的必要条件。因为经济的周期性波动在很大程度上就表现为存货的周期性波动。—— Alan.Blinder一、引　论1 997年和 1 998年 ,快速增长了近 2 0年的中国经济突然陷入了总需求不足的困境。 1 998年名义总需求的增长率更是创下了 1 A thorough understanding of inventory behavior is a necessary condition for a thorough understanding of the business cycle. Because cyclical fluctuations in the economy are largely manifested as cyclical fluctuations in inventory. - Alan.Blinder I. INTRODUCTION In 1997 and 1998, China’s economy, which grew rapidly in nearly 20 years, suddenly fell into a dilemma of insufficient aggregate demand. The nominal growth rate of nominal demand in 1998 even hit a record high