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研究利用2006~2015年FAOSTAT等数据,基于肉鸡品种差异的角度,考虑到收入、户内外消费差异以及人口老龄化的影响,对未来肉鸡消费市场的规模与结构进行预测。结果表明,到2030年,鸡肉的消费仍将平稳增长,但速度将趋于缓慢;黄羽肉鸡和白羽肉鸡的人均消费量将分别达到5.23 kg、5.34 kg;鸡肉消费结构有所优化,高品质的黄羽肉鸡消费比重上升,低品质的白羽肉鸡消费比重下降。经人口结构修正后,我国鸡肉人均消费量将达到11.22 kg。
Using the data of FAOSTAT from 2006 to 2015 and so on, based on the differences of broiler breeds, this study predicted the size and structure of the future broiler consumer market considering income, indoor and outdoor consumption differences and population aging. The results show that by 2030 consumption of chicken will continue to grow steadily but at a slower pace; per capita consumption of yellow-feathered broilers and white-feathered broilers will reach 5.23 kg and 5.34 kg, respectively; consumption structure of chicken will be optimized and high-quality The proportion of yellow feather broiler consumption increased, the proportion of low-quality white feather broiler consumption dropped. After the population structure is amended, China’s per capita consumption of chicken will reach 11.22 kg.