中美关系向来是中国最重要的双边关系。中美关系也得到了美国学者的大量分析与研究,一些人预见会有冲突产生,而另一些则认为双方将经历渐进式的和平过渡。中国当然希望是后者。然而现实是中美两国的相互依赖关系是不对等的。中国的主要经济优势在于其所持有的美国国债,但任何大规模的抛售都将给中国带来更甚于美国的伤害,贸易早已增加了两国的冲突成本。如果中国能采取更为灵活的货币政策,使得自身对美国市场的依赖性低于美国对中国市场的依赖性,那么更为强大的经济实力就能改变中国在相互依赖的天平中的份量。但在此之前,如果有冲突出现,中国将付出更高的代价。 Sino-U.S. Relations have always been China’s most important bilateral relationship. Sino-U.S. Relations have also been extensively analyzed and researched by American scholars. Some people foresee there will be conflicts, while others think the two sides will experience a gradual and peaceful transition. Of course, China hopes for the latter. However, the reality is that the interdependence between China and the United States is not equal. China’s main economic advantage lies in the holdings of U.S. treasuries, but any large-scale sell-off will bring more harm to China than the United States, which has already increased the cost of conflict between the two countries. If China can adopt a more flexible monetary policy so that its dependence on the United States market will be lower than that of the United States on the Chinese market, a more powerful economic power can change China’s weight in the interdependence of the balance. But before that, if there is a conflict, China will pay a higher price.