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中国民航业的快速发展加快了对民航管制员的引进和培养。根据近年来管制员数量增长的相关数据,通过构建灰色预测模型、用马尔科夫链改进的灰色模型和线性回归模型,分别预测出未来5年内管制员的需求量。最后比较预测结果,可知马尔科夫链适用于改进灰色模型,改进后的管制员预测模型误差较小,精度较高。预测结果能给民航高校的管制员培养计划提供参考,也是对需求量预测方法的探索。
The rapid development of China’s civil aviation industry has accelerated the introduction and training of civil aviation controllers. According to the data of the number of controllers in recent years, we construct the gray prediction model, and use the improved gray model and linear regression model of Markov chain to predict the demand of controller in the next 5 years respectively. Finally, the comparison of the prediction results shows that the Markov chain is suitable for improving the gray model. The error of the improved controller prediction model is smaller and the accuracy is higher. The result of the forecast can provide a reference for the training of controllers in civil aviation colleges and universities, as well as an exploration of the demand forecasting method.