论文部分内容阅读
在过去30多年中,县域经济和城镇化的迅速发展促进了县域用电需求的快速增长。如何合理分析县域配电系统各方面的发展需求及其满足程度,对优化投资与改善规划决策进而实现可持续发展具有重要意义。在此背景下,运用马斯洛需求分层思想,首先提出了县域配电系统发展需求的层次划分方法,按照配电系统不满足发展需求时可能产生的负面影响,将配电系统发展需求划分为5个发展层次。此外,为便于对县域配电系统不同方面的发展需求进行量化评估,选取了5个基本发展需求指标作为表征发展需求特征的上层指标,并对由此得到的上层指标进行多维度分解得到下层的具体特征指标,上层指标和下层指标共同形成多层次发展需求特征指标集。之后,由下层指标评估结果综合得到上层5个基本发展需求指标值,并以该5个指标值作为表征县域配电系统不同方面发展需求的特征量,进而采用一种改进K均值聚类算法对多个县域配电系统进行聚类分析,得到县域配电系统的各大类典型发展需求特征。最后,采用河南省县域配电系统实际数据对所提方法进行了实证分析。
In the past 30 years, the rapid development of the county economy and urbanization has promoted the rapid growth of electricity demand in the county. How to reasonably analyze the development needs and the degree of satisfaction in various aspects of the county’s distribution system is of great significance for optimizing investment and improving planning decisions and achieving sustainable development. Under this background, using Maslow’s demand stratification ideology, we first proposed a method for hierarchically dividing the development needs of the county’s distribution system. According to the negative impact that the power distribution system may not meet when it meets development requirements, the distribution system needs are divided. For five levels of development. In addition, in order to facilitate the quantitative evaluation of the development needs of different areas of the county distribution system, five basic development needs indicators were selected as the upper indicators to characterize the development requirements, and the resulting upper indicators were multi-dimensionally decomposed to obtain the lower levels. The specific characteristic indicators, the upper indicators and the lower indicators together form a multi-level development demand feature indicator set. After that, five basic development needs indicator values are obtained from the evaluation results of the lower indicators, and the five indicator values are used as feature quantities to characterize the development needs of different aspects of the distribution system in the county, and an improved K-means clustering algorithm is used. Several county distribution systems are clustered and analyzed to obtain the characteristics of typical development requirements of the major distribution systems in the county. Finally, an empirical analysis of the proposed method was conducted using the actual data of the county distribution system in Henan Province.