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我国民工“流动”自1992年“民工初潮”至2004“民工高潮”止,已进入到拉尼斯—费景汉(Ranis-Fei mod-el)理论(以下简称“拉—费理论”)转移的第二个阶段。其中每一次的起伏变化都直接影响我国粮食价格的波动。2004年以后,民工“流动”逐渐趋于平稳,粮食价格也开始出现“温和型”上涨趋势。本文试以灰色相对关联度为工具,结合我国1978~2014年粮食价格波动指数,粮食产量增长、人口数和第一产业比重等数据,揭示民工“流动”与粮食价格波动的内在关系。
The “migrant workers” of our country have entered the Ranis-Fei mod-el theory (hereinafter referred to as “labor”) since 1992, - fee theory “) transfer the second phase. Each time the ups and downs of the direct impact on China’s grain price fluctuations. After 2004, migrant workers ”floating “ gradually tended to stabilize, and food prices began to appear ”mild “ upward trend. This paper tries to reveal the internal relationship between migrant worker ”floating " and the fluctuation of grain price by taking the relative relativity of gray as a tool and combining with the data of the food price volatility index, the grain output growth, the population and the primary industry proportion from 1978 to 2014 in our country.