中国大地震的发生方式、时间间隔及概率分布

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本文导出与地震活动有关的两个参数m和E[T]以及地震发生的概率分布函数,并由中国大地震资料求出中国各地震区的这两个参数值和大地震发生的概率分布。其结果是:(1)中国各地震区的判断性参数或地震发生方式参数m值均大于-1,证明中国大地震具有一个共同特征——其发生方式为周期性的;(2)中国各地震区的地震活动性参数或同一地点范围内大地震复发的优势时间间隔E[T]值随震级而异,随地区而异。即震级越大其值也大,反之亦然。板缘地区其值较小,板内地区其值较大,离板缘越远其值越大;(3)中国各地震区大地震发生的概率分布曲线也与震级和地区有关。即震级越大,曲线越缓,震级越小曲线越陡。板缘地区曲线较陡,板内地区曲线较缓,且离板缘越远曲线越缓。m、E[T]和地震发生的概率分布函数不仅对研究大地震及共预报是有一定意义的,而且对研究中小地震活动也是适用的。 In this paper, we derive the two parameters m and E [T] related to seismicity and the probability distribution function of earthquake occurrence, and obtain the values ​​of these two parameters and the probability distribution of earthquakes in China by the data of China Earthquake. The results are as follows: (1) Judgment parameter or m-value of the mode of earthquake occurrence in all seismogenic regions in China is greater than -1, which proves that China Earthquake has a common feature - its occurrence is cyclical; (2) Seismicity parameters in the seismic zone or the predominant time interval E [T] for recurrence of large earthquakes in the same area vary with magnitude and vary by region. That is, the larger the magnitude, the larger the value, and vice versa. The value of the plate margin is smaller, the value is larger in the plate, and the greater the value is from the plate margin. (3) The probability distribution curve of the major earthquakes in China is also related to the magnitude and the region. That is, the larger the magnitude, the slower the curve, the steeper the magnitude. The curve of the edge of the plate is steeper, the curve of the plate is slower, and the curve is farther away from the plate edge. The probability distribution function of m, E [T] and earthquake occurrence not only have certain significance for the study of large earthquakes and co-forecasting, but also for the study of medium and small earthquakes.
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