2015年持续降息降准带来了股债双牛,政府债务置换启动有效推动了社会及政府融资增速回升,受益于此,2016年以后经济总需求开始缓慢恢复。2016年的政策主线在于去产能,钢铁、煤炭大力推进,带来商品价格大涨。2017年主要政策是降低三四线城市房地产的高库存,上半年GDP增速超预期、工业增速回升,依然是地产周期在推动。那么,未来的政策主线 In 2015, the continuous cut in interest rates led to a double-headed debt-equity ratio. Starting with government debt replacement effectively boosted the growth of social and government financing. Thanks to this, total economic demand began to slowly recover after 2016. In 2016, the main policy line is to go to production capacity. The steel and coal industries are pushing hard to bring in commodity prices. The main policy in 2017 is to reduce the high inventory of real estate in tier-3 and tier-4 cities. In the first half of this year, GDP growth exceeded expectations and industrial growth picked up. It is still driven by the real estate cycle. Well, the policy of the future main line