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本文构建了一个同时引入偏向性技术变迁与中性技术冲击的包含居民消费的习惯形成的随机动态一般均衡模型,并以此模型为基础,对1979-2009年间中国宏观经济进行实证检验。研究表明:模型的预测结果与中国的特征事实较一致;对中国宏观经济的解释力要强于未包含劳动的RBC模型、包含资本劳动的可分劳动RBC模型、引入居民消费的习惯形成的可分劳动RBC模型,说明这一模型更符合中国经济的特征事实;与正的中性技术冲击具有正财富效应相反,正的偏向性技术变迁冲击具有明显的负财富效应特征;我国1979-2007年间推行的降低劳动弹性的偏向性技术变迁工业化发展战略促进了我国居民消费的增加、资本积累与GDP产出的提高,故而认为,这个战略是成功的。
This paper constructs a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates biased technological changes and neutral technical shocks and includes the habit of resident consumption. Based on this model, this paper empirically tests the Chinese macroeconomy during 1979-2009. The results show that the model predictions are more in line with China’s characteristics and facts; that the explanatory power of China’s macroeconomics is stronger than that of RBC models that do not include labor, including separable labor RBC models of capital labor, and the formation of separable labor habits Labor RBC model, indicating that this model is more in line with the characteristics of China’s economy; with positive neutral technology impact has a positive wealth effect on the contrary, the positive bias of technology change has obvious negative wealth impact characteristics; the implementation of China’s 1979-2007 Of the bias to reduce labor flexibility Technological change Industrial development strategy to promote China’s increase in household consumption, capital accumulation and GDP output increase, therefore, that this strategy is successful.