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决定城市规模分布的关键因素有哪些?中国城市体系扁平化的形成机制又是什么?为回答这些问题,本文建立了一个考虑异质性个体迁移决策和房价内生性的城市体系模型,将影响城市规模分布的因素分解为效率、舒适度、迁移摩擦和房价四个方面:较高的效率和舒适度会促使城市规模增加,但相伴而生的高房价和迁移摩擦等集聚负外部性会抑制大城市规模的进一步扩张。进而基于结构式估计方法对中国城市的效率、迁移摩擦、房价和舒适度等特征进行了量化,并通过一系列反事实实验模拟了这些因素的变化对中国城市规模分布的影响。研究发现,效率、迁移摩擦和舒适度在中国城市规模分布的决定中发挥着重要的作用;消除城市间的房价差异几乎不影响人口的再配置,而消除迁移摩擦则会导致大规模的人口重新配置和带来显著的福利增进效应,这意味着迁移摩擦的存在是造成中国城市体系扁平化的关键致因。因此,全面推进户籍制度改革,有序放开城市的落户限制,进一步降低人口迁移中的空间摩擦,才能有效发挥市场的内生化力量,促进城市体系空间布局的优化。
What are the key factors to determine the distribution of urban size? What is the formation mechanism of flattening of Chinese urban system? To answer these questions, this paper establishes a model of urban system that considers the migration decision-making and endogenous prices of heterogeneous individuals, The factors of scale distribution are divided into four aspects: efficiency, comfort, migration friction and house price. Higher efficiency and comfort will promote the increase of city scale. However, the high concentration of housing and migration friction, such as the accompanying negative externalities, Further expansion of city size. Based on the structural estimation method, the characteristics of Chinese cities such as urbanization efficiency, migration friction, house price and comfort are quantified. Through a series of counterfactual tests, the influences of these factors on the urban distribution in China are simulated. The study found that efficiency, migration friction, and comfort play an important role in determining the size of China’s cities. Eliminating the difference in housing prices between cities will have little effect on population reallocation, and removing migration friction will lead to large-scale population renewal Allocating and bringing in a significant benefit-enhancing effect means that the existence of migration frictions is the key cause of the flattening of China’s urban system. Therefore, to fully promote the reform of the household registration system, orderly liberalize the urban settlement restrictions and further reduce the spatial friction in population migration can the market’s endogenous forces be effectively brought into play to promote the optimization of the urban spatial distribution.