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国际贸易领域的学者在解释一国商品特别是制成品进出口贸易量增长时,倾向于使用引力模型,但就中国来讲,该模型中的汇率、关税、运输成本和地理距离等变量的解释力度是有限的,不足以揭示中国贸易量增长之谜。事实上,中国贸易量的增长,源于经济全球化进程中的生产非一体化,源于跨国公司对其制造工序、环节的垂直外包,源于中国企业适时调整和参与国际产品内分工的策略。构建跨国公司主导的产品内分工均衡模型,利用贸易的技术条件、经济体的相似程度、贸易的政策条件、生产非一体化程度和人均资本装配水平等变量对中国贸易量增长进行计量检验,其结果支持上述基本判断。
The scholars in the field of international trade tend to use the gravity model when explaining the growth of the import and export trade volume of a country’s goods, especially manufactured goods. However, for China, the variables such as exchange rate, tariffs, transportation costs and geographic distance The intensity of interpretation is limited, not enough to reveal the mystery of the growth of China’s trade volume. In fact, the growth of China’s trade volume stems from the non-integration of production in the process of economic globalization. It comes from the vertical outsourcing of manufacturing processes and links by multinational corporations and from the strategy of Chinese enterprises to adjust and participate in the intra-product division of labor in a timely manner . Constructing MNC-based equilibrium model of intra-product division of labor, measuring the growth of China’s trade volume by using the technical conditions of trade, the similarities of economies, the policy conditions of trade, the degree of non-integration of production and the level of assembly of per capita capital, etc. The results support the above basic judgments.