论文部分内容阅读
为深入探索财政支农支出对粮食产出的影响规律,利用我国2000—2013年31个省份的面板数据样本,基于门槛模型对市场化背景下财政支农支出对我国粮食产出的影响及其区域差异进行了实证分析。结果表明:1)财政支农支出对粮食产出的影响受市场化水平的严重制约,表现出显著的非线性,存在双门槛效应,2个市场化门槛值分别为4.465及8.540。2)到2013年为止,我国已经有10个省份进入高市场化行列,19个省份为中等市场化省份,但是仍然有西藏、青海2个省份没有迈过低市场化门槛。3)财政支农支出的粮食产出效应存在显著的区域差异。在高市场化省份,财政支农支出对粮食产出的影响系数为0.393,具有显著的促进作用;在中等市场化省份,财政支农支出能够促进粮食产出,其影响系数为0.031,但是促进作用不显著;而在低市场化省份,财政支农支出对粮食产出的影响系数是-0.087,其效应显著为负。认为应该在市场化水平比较低的省份加快其市场化进程,进行制度创新,以更有效地实现财政支农促进粮食安全的政策目标。
In order to further explore the law of the impact of fiscal expenditure on food production, using the panel data of 31 provinces in 2000-2013 in our country, the influence of the financial expenditure on agriculture on the output of grain under the market-oriented background and its Regional differences were analyzed empirically. The results show that: 1) The impact of financial support for agriculture on grain output is severely restricted by the level of marketization, showing significant nonlinearity with double-threshold effect. The two market-based thresholds are 4.465 and 8.540.2, respectively As of 2013, 10 provinces in China have entered the market-oriented ranks. 19 provinces are middle-market provinces, but there are still two provinces in Tibet and Qinghai that have not crossed the threshold of low marketization. 3) There is a significant regional difference in the grain output effect of fiscal expenditure on agriculture. In the highly marketized provinces, the influence coefficient of financial support for agriculture on grain output is 0.393, which has a significant promoting effect. In the middle-market provinces, the fiscal expenditure on agriculture can promote grain output with the coefficient of influence of 0.031, but the promotion The effect is not significant; in the low-market provinces, the fiscal coefficient of agricultural expenditure on grain output is -0.087, the effect is significantly negative. They think that the marketization process should be accelerated in the provinces with lower marketization level and the system innovation should be carried out so as to realize the policy goal of financial supporting agriculture to promote food security more effectively.