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本文主要运用格兰杰因果检验和建立自回归分布滞后模型阐述了河北省产业结构变动与经济增长之间的关系。结果表明:河北省第二产业比重增长与经济增长之间存在经济增长影响二产比重的单向因果关系,三产比重变化与经济增长之间存在双向因果关系;无论长期还是短期第三产业的发展对河北省经济的增长都有促进作用;相对于长期来看,第二产业的发展在短期对经济增长的促进意义较大;在短期第三产业比重的增加会对当期经济的增长具有一定的抑制作用,滞后一期的三产比重变化对当期经济增长具有显著的正向作用,这说明三产的发展对经济增长的影响具有一定的时滞。
This paper mainly uses Granger causality test and establishes the lag model of autoregressive distribution to expound the relationship between industrial structure change and economic growth in Hebei province. The results show that there exists a one-way causal relationship between the growth of the secondary industry and economic growth in Hebei Province, the two-way causal relationship between the changes in the proportion of tertiary industry and economic growth. Whether the long-term or short-term tertiary industry In the long run, the development of the secondary industry is more significant for the promotion of economic growth in the short term; in the short term, the increase of the proportion of the tertiary industry will have certain effects on the economic growth of the current period , And the change of trispeculative proportion in one lag period has a significant positive effect on the current economic growth. This shows that the development of trichotomy has a certain time lag in the impact on economic growth.