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目的根据阳江市2010—2013年狂犬病暴露人群的监测数据,用自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)预测狂犬病暴露人数,为控制疫情、科学制定疫苗需求量提供理论依据。方法收集阳江市预防接种门诊的犬伤患者门诊记录,用ARIMA模型对狂犬病暴露监测数据进行逐月分析。结果模型ARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,1)12能很好地拟合阳江市狂犬病暴露曲线。结论 ARIMA模型适用于对狂犬病暴露人数的短期预测。
Objective To predict the number of rabies exposure by ARMAA according to the monitoring data of rabies exposed population from 2010 to 2013 in Yangjiang City and provide a theoretical basis for controlling the epidemic and scientifically formulating the vaccine demand. Methods Outpatient records of canine and wounded patients in vaccination clinics of Yangjiang City were collected, monthly surveillance data of rabies exposure were analyzed by ARIMA model. Results The model ARIMA (2,1,1) (0,1,1) 12 can well fit the rabies exposure curve of Yangjiang City. Conclusion The ARIMA model is suitable for short-term prediction of rabies exposure.