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2014年,北方海航道的航运开发活动遭遇严重挫折,这意味着俄罗斯政府选择的以概念红利为核心的理想化开发模式的缺陷完全暴露。这种开发模式不仅难以克服长期阻碍航道开发的内生性障碍,而且必然导致航运数据出现大量泡沫,无法真正实现航道开发的目标。目前,俄罗斯在航道开发问题上已经陷入了短期内难以摆脱的战略困境,航道航运数据的暴跌如果不能在短时间内获得明显改善,便意味着北方海航道开发将进入一个较长的回落和调整阶段。我国未来一段时间对北方海航道的参与和研究仍当继续加强,但投资和经营活动则应该更加审慎。
In 2014, the shipping development activities of the North China Seaway suffered serious setbacks, which meant that the defects of the idealized development mode chosen by the Russian government at the core of the concept dividend were completely exposed. This kind of development mode not only can not overcome the long-term obstacle endangering the development of waterway, but also inevitably leads to a lot of bubbles in the shipping data and can not really achieve the goal of waterway development. At present, Russia has fallen into a strategic dilemma in the short term that it is hard to get rid of in the short term. If the slump of the shipping channel data can not be significantly improved in a short period of time, it means that the development of the northern navigational channel will enter a long fall and adjustment stage. In the future, China’s participation and research in the North China Sea Channel will continue to be strengthened, but investment and business activities should be more cautious.