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为研究中国白条猪肉批发价格波动规律,首先,选用中国2009年11月25日~2016年11月25日的白条猪肉周批发价格数据分析了白条猪肉批发价格演化过程。然后,运用Eviews软件对数据进行平稳性检验,利用依赖于波动理论的时间趋势分解方法对白条猪肉批发价格进行波动规律分析。运用变异率绘制出我国白条猪肉批发价格波动程度变化曲线,根据波峰-波峰将波动曲线划分为7个大周期,研究显示7个周期的振幅除第2周期外均呈现强幅型,整体来说,周期振幅为强幅型、波动高度为中峰型、波动深度为负值,呈现古典型波动,以上研究结果说明我国白条猪肉批发价格变动剧烈、波动幅度较大并呈现一定的周期性。最后,提出了一些稳定白条猪肉批发价格的对策和建议。
In order to study the fluctuation of wholesale price of white striped pork in China, firstly, the wholesale price of white striped pork in China from November 25, 2009 to November 25, 2016 was used to analyze the evolution of white striped pork wholesale price. Then, using the Eviews software to test the data’s stability, using the time-trend decomposition method which depends on the wave theory to analyze the fluctuation rule of white pork wholesale price. Using the mutation rate, the fluctuation curve of wholesale price of white striped pork in China was plotted. According to the peak-peak, the fluctuation curve was divided into seven large cycles. The study showed that the amplitudes of seven cycles showed strong amplitude except the second cycle as a whole , The amplitude of the cycle is in the form of strong amplitude, the fluctuation height is in the middle peak shape, and the fluctuation depth is negative, showing classical fluctuations. The above results show that the wholesale price of white striped pork in our country fluctuates sharply with large fluctuations and shows some periodicity. Finally, some countermeasures and suggestions for stabilizing wholesale price of white pork are proposed.