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滑坡的时间-位移曲线一般具有3个阶段特征,即初始变形阶段、等速变形阶段和加速变形阶段,不同演化阶段加速度具有不同的变化特点.目前往往是依据对加速度曲线特征的分析来人为划分演化阶段,缺少相应的理论支持和定量计算.针对上述问题,选取月降雨量、月库水位高程变化量对滑坡的累计位移建立多因素的时间序列预测模型.然后利用Chow分割点检验理论,以所建模型中F和LR统计量最大值点作为分割点对滑坡演化阶段进行划分.以新滩滑坡和三峡库区白水河滑坡为例,利用累计位移、降雨及库水位变化数据进行计算验证.结果表明,对多元时间序列模型进行Chow分割点检验可对滑坡的演化阶段进行准确划分,为滑坡的临滑预警预报提供重要判据.
The time-displacement curve of a landslide generally has three stages, that is, the initial stage of deformation, the stage of constant velocity deformation and the stage of acceleration deformation, and the acceleration varies in different stages of evolution. At present, it is often based on the analysis of the characteristics of the acceleration curve Evolutionary stage, lack of corresponding theoretical support and quantitative calculation.According to the above problems, we choose the monthly rainfall and monthly variation of monthly water level to establish a multi-factor time series prediction model for the accumulated displacement of landslide.Then, The maximum value of F and LR statistic in the model is used as the dividing point to divide the landslide evolution stage.Taking Xindan Landslide and Baishuihe Landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area as an example, the calculation and verification are carried out by using the accumulated displacement, rainfall and the change of reservoir water level. The results show that the Chow cut-off point test of multivariate time series model can accurately divide the evolution stages of landslides, and provide important criteria for landslide forecasting.