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华北平原地下水资源承载力评价对保障水资源—生态环境—社会经济协调可持续发展具有极其重要的意义。采用模糊综合评价方法对华北平原市级地下水资源承载力进行分析,并结合灰色关联理论进一步探讨地下水资源承载力的影响因素。结果表明,华北平原地区各城市地下水资源承载力平均得分为0.38,其中尚具一定开发潜力的仅占19.0%,已接近开发潜力和地下水资源已严重超采且已出现地质环境问题的分别占38.1%和42.9%,总体承载力很小。经计算,地下水资源开采量与人口、第一产业产值、第三产业产值、GDP、工业产值的灰色关联度依次为:0.71,0.63,0.59,0.58和0.56,故影响华北平原地下水承载力最主要的因素为人口的剧增,农业灌溉用水的增加以及社会经济高速发展等社会因素。
The evaluation of the bearing capacity of groundwater resources in the North China Plain is of great significance to ensure the coordinated, sustainable development of water resources - ecological environment - social economy. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to analyze the carrying capacity of groundwater resources in the North China Plain. The gray correlation theory was used to further explore the influencing factors of groundwater resources carrying capacity. The results show that the average groundwater resource carrying capacity of all cities in North China Plain is 0.38, of which only 19.0% of them have certain development potentials. They are close to the development potential and the groundwater resources have been overexploited and the geological environment problems have occurred, accounting for 38.1% % And 42.9%, the overall carrying capacity is small. According to calculation, the gray relational degree between groundwater resources exploitation and population, primary industry output, tertiary industry output, GDP and industrial output are 0.71,0.63,0.59,0.58 and 0.56 in turn, so the groundwater carrying capacity of groundwater in North China Plain is the most important The factors are the social factors such as the sharp increase of population, the increase of agricultural irrigation water and the rapid social and economic development.