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为了合理体现交通事故延误对出行者路径选择的影响,提出了随机状态下的交通事故时间延误模型。将交通事故的随机性、持续时间和道路通行能力等不确定性因素引入到交通分配模型中,并对路径选择模型进行修正。分析了各等级道路最大适宜出行范围,根据修正的路径选择模型,采用逐次交通分配方法,得到各等级道路的出行周转量和出行距离,并与不考虑交通事故延误时的出行距离进行了对比分析。分析结果表明:当考虑交通事故延误时,支路、次干路、主干路、快速路的最大出行距离分别为2.000、2.946、4.054、5.963km;当不考虑交通事故延误时,支路、次干路、主干路、快速路的最大出行距离分别为2.000、3.000、6.000、10.000km;交通事故延误是影响出行者路径选择的重要因素;当考虑交通事故延误时,高等级道路的最大出行距离变小。相比于传统的路径选择模型,本文模型更优。
In order to reasonably reflect the influence of traffic accident delay on the route choice of travelers, a time delay model of traffic accident in random state is proposed. The random factors of traffic accidents, the duration and the capacity of road traffic are introduced into the traffic assignment model, and the path selection model is modified. Based on the modified route selection model and sequential traffic assignment method, the travel turnover and travel distance of each grade road are obtained and compared with the travel distance without considering the traffic accident delay . The results show that when considering the traffic accident delay, the maximum travel distance of branch road, secondary road, main road and expressway is 2.000, 2.946, 4.054, 5.963km respectively. When the traffic accident delay is not considered, The maximum travel distance of trunk road, trunk road and expressway is 2.000, 3.000, 6.000, 10.000km respectively. Traffic accidents delay is an important factor affecting the path selection of travelers. When considering the traffic accident delay, the maximum travel distance of high-grade roads Smaller Compared with the traditional path selection model, the model is better.