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本文在分析中国自贸区建设情况以及RCEP各成员国竞争力的基础上,运用GTAP模型,就RCEP对中国贸易规模、GDP、福利水平、农产品贸易及国内农业产出等方面的影响进行了一般均衡模拟研究。结果表明,RCEP建成后,成员国(地区)整体上都将受益,中国小麦、食糖、棉花和乳制品出口额显著下降,果蔬和水产品出口略有增加;产出方面,中国的乳品、食糖和植物油受影响较大。最后,本文提出了互利共赢、差异化和留有余地三大谈判原则和三大具体谈判策略。
Based on the analysis of the construction of China’s free trade area and the competitiveness of RCEP member countries, this paper uses the GTAP model to analyze the impact of RCEP on China’s trade scale, GDP, welfare level, agricultural trade and domestic agricultural output. Equilibrium Simulation Research. The results show that members of the RCEP will benefit from the RCEP as a whole. Exports of wheat, sugar, cotton and dairy products in China have dropped significantly while exports of fruits, vegetables and aquatic products have slightly increased. In terms of output, China’s dairy products, sugar And vegetable oil affected more. In the end, this article puts forward three principles of negotiation and three specific negotiation tactics of mutual benefit and win-win, differentiation and leave room.